Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Five ways China's economic crisis will affect Africa

Signs of an economic slowdown in China have led to fears of a global recession, including Africa, given the close ties it has built up with China in recent years.
BBC Africa Business Report's Lerato Mbele looks at five ways the continent could be affected:
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The rand

Rand notes and coins
South Africa's currency has taken the hardest battering because it is the only African currency traded on the so-called "carry-trade".
This is the money-market, where currency- and foreign-exchange brokers decide on the valuations of each nations currency. They look at the nature of the economy, its strength and its future prospects.
In this regard, South Africa is showing signs of weakness on the growth front, low productivity of the factory side and pull-backs on the mining side.
Together with volatile prices for its commodities such as gold, platinum and coal, traders have decided that the South African economy, and therefore its currency, will be risky to buy and invest in.
This is why the rand has lost nearly 8% of its value in the past week alone.
It is important to note that for other countries that buy and sell commodities, similar speculation would have occurred.
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South Africa's stock market

The Johannesburg Securities Exchange
South Africa will feel a secondary impact on its stock market.
The Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) is the largest bourse in Africa and the 17th largest in the world.
That means the companies listed on the exchange are exposed to buyers and fund managers abroad.
About 40% of the daily trades on the JSE come from foreign traders, mainly in Europe and the US.
If these stockbrokers believe that the risks of buying shares in Africa outweigh the opportunities to profit from these stocks and bonds, they will withdraw their investments.
These trades happen at a click of the button, so in a day the JSE could lose millions of dollars.
In order to prevent this, the South African Reserve Bank has been asked to step in by imposing capital controls on how much money traders can withdraw from South Africa each day.
However, the bank refuses to take that action, saying it goes against the grain of a free market economy and will allow the markets to correct themselves naturally.
The only other option is to push up interest rates as this will reduce the debt on some of these stocks and reward those who invest their money over a longer period of time, with higher profits in the future.

Trade and investment

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